Вторник, 03 Февраль 2015
0:07
a newspaper
0:08tell you who
0:11
hell %uh
0:14
nation's first tell you that a more important tell you why
0:18
and what next and that's really where
0:22
strat for differs from a journalistic organization
0:25
a journalistic organization is essentially backward-looking
0:29
its job is to record what has happened and to tell the reader
0:34
all about it on intelligence organization is supposed to really be
0:39
folks to know what's going to happen
0:41
and that's it that's a very different ask and other way to look at it
0:46
is that a journalistic organization is source based
0:51
it tells you what people tell
0:54
it intelligence or at least
0:58
strat for intelligence were very suspicious sources
1:01
not because they're liars because I gotta tell you what
1:04
they want you to know and we're really interested in those things that are real
1:10
in the world that have no sources
1:12
I mean what are the facts of the matter is that there are huge amounts
1:17
things happening in the world %uh
1:20
that there is no personal step forward and tell you about
1:24
so wears a newspaper will never
1:27
to inference strat for will
1:31
I'll give you an example when the war in Georgia broke out
1:35
in 2008 stretch for it predicted that that was going to happen
1:38
was not that we'd penetrated the the Russian government
1:43
or the Georgian government although we had sources both it was the realization
1:48
that the russians have been put in the position by decision to give Kosovo
1:52
independence
1:53
that gave them no choice so where's newspaper would never
1:58
in for what is likely to happen as a result or shouldn't infer
2:03
we do we don't simply connect the dots
2:07
we try to fill in the blank spaces and sometimes that require sources
2:12
and sometimes that requires a tremendous honor research
2:15
and sometimes it requires logic inference
2:18
and that makes very different from a journalistic organization
2:25
what we tried
2:26
to do is tell the story oh the relationship between nations
2:31
and to try to tell the story of how
2:34
various nations may decide to act the way they do
2:38
as too hard to what we do and we leave
2:42
other aspects up the news to other people where much less
2:46
interested in the decisions that people make than the decisions they're gonna
2:51
have to make
2:52
so we're not really all that interested in what
2:56
the bureaucrats in officials
3:00
inside washington have to say because they common goal and it really doesn't
3:05
matter
3:05
Washington has an entire industry producing policy papers
3:10
most of which are never read by anyone importance
3:13
and those people who are really important like the president
3:16
they don't really get to make as many decisions as you might think
3:20
the pressures that are on a precedent that are squeezing them shape informing
3:25
them
3:25
or just much more important and what he might want to do
3:30
and what we focus on are those pressures and other people
3:37
intelligence approach
3:39
was the individual the same things allows governments the opportunity to
3:43
plan ahead
3:44
if you don't know it's coming there's nothing you can do
3:47
but for example if you understood that
3:51
george bush had decided to finance the war in Iraq
3:54
by borrowing shattered by paying for directly I think you would have
3:58
understood
3:59
there would be certain economic consequences and he understood those
4:02
consequences
4:03
how you may be in a plan around it so intelligence
4:07
allows you to plan your own lives because
4:11
whether the individual does or not his life is a product of all forces around
4:17
him